US Dollar Declines, Metals Generally Rise, Alumina Up for Two Consecutive Days, Ferrous Metals Series Fluctuate Upward with Gains Exceeding 1% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM Mar 24 News: Metal Market: As of the day's close, domestic base metals generally rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE tin both falling. SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, and SHFE tin fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc and SHFE lead both rose over 1%, with SHFE zinc up 1.64% and SHFE lead up 1.14%. The gains in other metals were relatively small. Alumina main contract rose 1.76%, marking two consecutive days of gains. Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.88%, silicon metal main contract rose 1.08%, and polysilicon main contract rose 0.24%. The main contract for European line container shipping rose 0.31%. In the overseas market, as of 15:01, foreign base metals collectively rose, with LME copper and LME lead both rising over 1%. LME copper rose 1.42%, and LME lead rose 1.41%. LME nickel rose 0.84%. The gains in other metals were relatively small. In the ferrous metals series, most rose, with only stainless steel falling, down 0.15%. Iron ore led the gains with a 2.43% increase. Rebar and HRC both rose over 1%, with rebar up 1.23% and HRC up 1.28%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 1.13%, and coke rose 2.97%. In precious metals, as of 15:01, COMEX gold rose 0.26%, and COMEX silver rose 0.77%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.22%, and SHFE silver fell 0.17%. As of 15:01 today, market conditions. Click to view the SMM market board. Macro front Domestic: [Monitored ports completed a total cargo throughput of 265.404 million mt, up 5.95% MoM] According to data monitored and summarized by the State Council's Logistics Guarantee and Smooth Operation Working Group Office, from March 17 to March 23, national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner. Specifically: National railways transported a total of 79.539 million mt of goods, up 1.54% MoM; national highways saw 54.631 million trucks pass through, up 4.11% MoM; monitored ports completed a total cargo throughput of 265.404 million mt, up 5.95%, and a container throughput of 6.253 million TEUs, up 5.27%; civil aviation ensured 119,000 flights (including 5,023 cargo flights, with 3,387 international and 1,636 domestic), up 3.4% MoM; postal and express delivery services collected about 3.682 billion items, down 1.76% MoM, and delivered about 3.687 billion items, down 2.33% MoM. [Central bank conducts net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan in open market] The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a winning bid rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before. With 481 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan was achieved. [Zhejiang: Provincial units conduct inventory and usage status of real estate and land, formulate plans for asset revitalization] The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance recently released a notice on strengthening the implementation of systems to further improve the efficiency of administrative and public institution state-owned asset management. The notice states that finance departments, supervisory authorities, and administrative and public institutions at all levels should enhance their awareness of asset revitalization, earnestly strengthen the implementation of the government's requirement to live within its means, and standardize the work of state-owned asset revitalization based on actual circumstances. Localities are required to comprehensively survey water infrastructure assets, establish a baseline list and revitalization list, promptly report revitalization needs, and actively promote market-based methods for revitalization. Provincial units will conduct an inventory and usage status of real estate and land, formulate plans for real estate and land revitalization, optimize the allocation of real estate and land, and improve efficiency. Finance departments, supervisory authorities, and administrative and public institutions at all levels should summarize and timely report replicable and referential cases of revitalization work. The provincial finance department will select and promote the best practices. On Mar 24, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.178 per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:01, the US dollar index fell 0.17%. On Mar 21, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, stated that it is currently uncertain how US government tariff policies will impact inflation. He also believes that the current monetary policy path planned by the US Fed is "reasonable," maintaining the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year. He pointed out that the main task of the current US Fed monetary policy is to manage risks and uncertainties, and he stated, "We are not in a rush" to make the next interest rate policy decision. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that due to uncertainties, the US Fed will remain on hold until the situation becomes clearer. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the US Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 87.8%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 12.2%. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June is 18.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 72.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 9.7%. (Comprehensive) Data: Today, the preliminary values of France's March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Germany's March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the US's March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released. Additionally, attention should be paid to the talks between US and Russian officials on the Ukraine issue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; the China Development Forum 2025 Annual Meeting is being held in Beijing from Mar 23 to 24. Crude oil: As of 15:01, oil prices showed mixed performance, with WTI up 0.03% and Brent down 0.03%, as investors focused on the prospect of more Russian crude entering the export market. Last Friday, both benchmark crude futures contracts closed higher and recorded weekly gains for the second consecutive week, due to the US once again restricting Iranian crude exports and the recent OPEC+ arrangement, which also led market participants to expect tighter supply. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said, "The expectation of increased Russian oil exports is putting pressure on oil prices. However, investors are cautious about taking large positions when assessing OPEC's future production trends after April." IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong noted that the possibility of increased Russian crude exports, along with OPEC+ starting to increase production from April, could mean additional supply, which may be difficult to fully absorb with demand-side factors. OPEC+ announced a new arrangement last Thursday, requiring seven member countries to further cut oil production to offset excess output, with the reduction exceeding the monthly increase planned to start next month. Since 2022, OPEC+ has taken a series of measures, agreeing to cut production by 5.85 million bpd, or 5.7% of global supply, to support the market. OPEC+ confirmed on Mar 3 that, given the healthier market fundamentals, eight member countries will increase production by 138,000 bpd from April. Market participants are also watching the prospects for Iranian crude exports. (Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review Aluminum prices continued to consolidate weakly, and secondary aluminum prices remained on a downward trend [ADC12 Price Daily Review] Mar 24: SHFE aluminum consolidated weakly, processing fees concentrated on upward adjustments, but downstream buyers mainly bargained down purchasing prices [Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review] Silicon raw material market trended weaker, with silicon coal prices declining in several regions recently [SMM Silicon Daily Review] Mar 24: MHP FOB price declined slightly [SMM MHP Daily Review] Mar 24: Precursor plant price acceptance increased [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] Electrolytic manganese market maintained consolidation, with all parties mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude [SMM EMM Daily Review] Silver prices weakened in the morning, and spot market trading was active [SMM Daily Review]